The Yankees added one of the top arms in free agency in Max Fried, and now they’re getting one of the top relievers in baseball to close out games.
BREAKING: The New York Yankees are finalizing a trade to acquire closer Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 13, 2024
In the trade, New York will send Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin to the Brewers.
It’s a significant deal for the Yankees as well as Milwaukee, and it seems like a pretty big one from a fantasy standpoint as well. Let’s take a look.
How good has Devin Williams been?
Good probably doesn’t quite justify how impressive Williams has been in his six seasons. Over 241 appearances, the right-hander has forged a 1.83 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, a 14.3 K/9 and saved 68 games for MIlwaukee. He was the 2020 Rookie of the Year after posting a miniscule 0.33 ERA and ridiculous 53/9 K/BB in the truncated season, and he finished seventh in Cy Young voting despite serving as a setup man to Josh Hader.In 2024, Williams missed half the season with a back injury, and while unfortunately his last memory for fans of the Brew Crew will be him allowing the go-ahead homer to Pete Alonso in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, he was excellent for the majority of the year with a 1.25 ERA and 14 saves over his 22 appearances.
Long story short, there are very, very, very few relievers who can match Williams’ ability.
Do the advanced metrics like Williams?
Again, that’s an understatement.
Had Williams qualified, the 30-year-old would have ranked at or near the top of baseball in the majority of categories in 2024. But let’s look at 2023 for a full sample. His expected ERA (2.67), expected batting average (.171), whiff percentage (41.8), strikeout percentage (37.7) and extension generated (7.7 feet) all ranked in the 98th percentile or better. He was also in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity allowed at 85.9 miles per hour and allowed hard hits just 29.6 percent of the time, which ranked in the 96th percentile.
So, yeah, the metrics like him a little bit.
How does Williams generate these impressive numbers?
It’s probably too simple to just say his change-up, but, it’s his change-up.
Let’s go back to 2023 again because of its larger sample. The year, he threw his change 549 times, which represents a 57.9 percentile of his offerings. In 151 plate appearances against the pitch, hitters hit .097, slugged .187, swung and missed 43.1 percent of the time and had a strikeout rate of 37.7 percent. If that’s not an elite offering, there are no elite offerings.
Williams also has a solid fastball to keep hitters honest and will mix in a cutter for good measure, but it’s the change-up that makes him such a special option at the end of games.
Are there any reasons for concern?
The one thing Williams has struggled with in his time are free passes. In 2023, his walk rate was 12.1, which is a well below-average mark. Over his career he’s walked 4.3 batters per nine innings, which again, not the mark you typically see from dominant closers. It hasn’t really bitten him thus far, obviously, but it’s the one flaw in Williams profile.
How does Nestor Cortes fit with Milwaukee?
Not often you see a trade where both pitchers involved allowed significant postseason homers, is it? Despite the grand salami Cortes allowed to Freddie Freeman in Game 1, Cortes was a solid option for the Yankees in 2024 with a 3.77 ERA and 162/39 K/BB over 174 1/3 innings. Cortes doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff, but he pounds the strike zone with all four of his pitches (5.5 percent walk rate), and while he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (31.9 percent ground ball percentage), he generally avoids barrels as seen in a 7.9 percent rate and an expected batting average of .236.
Cortes should pitch in the middle of the Milwaukee rotation, and while he doesn’t offer elite fantasy upside nor anything close, he offers some streaming value and makes sense in NL-only formats.
How about Caleb Durbin?
Durbin was a 14th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Washington University who was traded from Atlanta to New York for Lucas Luetge, and the 24-year-old progressed to Triple-A in 2024 while slashing .275/.388/.451 with 10 homers and 31 stolen bases. He’s a right-handed hitter who shows a strong approach at the plate, and he puts the ball in play as seen in just 111 career strikeouts in 281 career minor-league games. Where Durbin really stood out was the Arizona Fall League, as he hit .312 with a .976 OPS, and he stole an incredible 29 bags in 30 attempts over his 24 games. There might not be quite enough offensive thump to make him a regular, but it’s easy to see him carving out a big-league role because of his speed, approach and ability to put the bat on the ball.
Who closes for Milwaukee in 2025?
There are a few options for the Brewers internally, assuming they don’t make a move of course.
The most obvious replacement would be Trevor Megill. Megill saved 21 games for Milwaukee while Williams was out with a 2.72 ERA and 50/14 K/BB over 46 1/3 innings. There’s still three years of club control for Megill, and while he pales in comparison to Williams, that’s compliment to Williams and not insult to Megill.
There’s also Abner Uribe if the Brewers prefer to have Megill pitch in a non-defined role. Uribe was given the closer job to begin 2024, and while it didn’t go particularly well, there are plenty of relievers that have struggled in their first taste of closing action to bounce back. The 24-year-old has sensational stuff, and a strong showing in spring training could see him win the job.
Megill is the best bet for now, but don’t be shocked if Uribe is saving games for the Brewers by the end of the year.
Back to Williams, is this a good fit from a fantasy perspective?
Of course it is. Maybe there’s a little bit of concern about durability because Williams missed so much time in 2024 and is now 30. But those concerns are just not even close to the upside that Williams provides as a fantasy stopper. The only player who gets “hurt” by this deal is Luke Weaver, as he’ll go from closer to bridge for Williams in 2025. There just aren’t many better in the sport, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he’s one of the best fantasy relievers in baseball next year. It’d be more surprising if he wasn’t, honestly.
