Reunited, and it feels so good
Reunited 'cause we understood
There's one perfect fit
And, sugar, this one is it
We both are so excited 'cause we're reunited, hey, hey
Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau
Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
Thanks to Peaches & Herb for this magnificent and fitting song, but it's the first thing that popped into my head when the Blue Jackets announced they had signed Sean Monahan to a five-year, $27.5-million deal, reuniting with former Flames teammate Johnny Gaudreau.
After being plagued by injuries in the later years of his Flames stint, Monahan was limited to just 25 games with the Habs in 2022-23 before rebounding with a 59-point campaign in 2023-24 when he played a league-high 83 regular-season games.
Monahan cashed in on a huge long-term deal, and even if it seems rich, it made sense for the Jackets. They lack natural centers and by reuniting him with Gaudreau, the Jackets are hoping they can bring out the best in each other. There may be some added value there. From 2013-14 to 2021-22, Gaudreau (609 points in 602 games) and Monahan (462 points in 656 games) ranked first and second, respectively, in total points for the Flames.
Top 10 forward lines in xGF/60 minutes (min. 500), 2018-19 season.
moneypuck.com
Among trios with at least 500 TOI, Gaudreau and Monahan's line with Elias Lindholm ranked seventh in xGF/60 and second in xGF in 2018-19, and third in xGF/60 and first in xGF in 2017-18 with Micheal Ferland, according to moneypuck.com. Gaudreau and Monahan were nearly inseparable and for very good reasons, including their affinity for purple Gatorade.
During their two most productive seasons together (2017-18 to 2018-19), Monahan and Gaudreau carried a 54.59 5v5 CF%, 94.89 5v5 xGF and 2.88 xGF/60 in 1,976 minutes together, according to naturalstattrick.com.
To put that into perspective, Gaudreau and Monahan's xGF/60 from 2017-18 to 2018-19 was close to the expected goals per 60 minutes rate for Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov (3.06), Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz (3.03), and David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand (2.97) this past season.
Most elite duos will have 5v5 xGF/60 in the low 3's, but anything around 3.00 is considered very good.
The problem is that was ages ago, and both Monahan and Gaudreau aren't quite the same players. The Jackets' search for a new coach is still on-going — I think Jay Woodcroft's offensive style would be the more impactful choice in fantasy than Dean Evason — and it always worries me when a new coach is named so much later than usual after the season. Short summer to get acclimatized, new GM and coach at the same time… it's the beginning of a new continuity, and the starts can be a bit rough.
And, at this point in their careers, are we sure Monahan is that much better than Boone Jenner? Gaudreau played with Jenner most often this past season, and the numbers weren't very good, though admittedly there were better together than without.
Recall that Monahan and Gaudreau also had a quality third wheel to play with, and while the Jackets present plenty of intriguing options, none of them seem ideal. (It would not be surprising to see Patrik Laine suit up for another team in the fall). There are young, talented players, but it's anyone's guess who lines up in that right wing spot. Yegor Chinakhov and Kirill Marchenko would be intriguing options, but my guess is that spot is a rotating cast all season.
The key to their offensive production is Gaudreau, who is shooting a paltry 8.7 percent in two seasons with the Jackets. That number is sure to revert closer back to his career average (12.1 percent), so I'll take the over on 60 points, but the under on Monahan's 59 points after seeing a spike in his shooting percentage last season.
Expect to see a lot of Gaudreau to Monahan & Marner to Tavares tonight in Calgary. When it comes to connecting in the high-danger slot area, not many do it better. #LeafsForever #Flames pic.twitter.com/fpp6wvyCtK
— LogiqBets (@LogiqBets) March 5, 2019
There's also a matter of high-danger scoring chances. The Jackets were notoriously bad at generating offense up close, ranking 26th in total shot attempts in that area even though they were around the league average (16th in HDSH%) at finishing those chances. If Monahan and Gaudreau can get to the good scoring areas and feed off their previous chemistry, it's going to give their numbers and the Jackets' offense a huge boost.
I'm buying low on Gaudreau because I see upside and I think he benefits more from playing with Monahan than the other way around, and selling high on Monahan, who was a 30-30 player even at his best. In fantasy, you're looking to get added value relative to draft position, and I think Gaudreau's in a much better position to do that.
Where would you draft Gaudreau and Monahan this coming season?
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